Housing Market Reaches Turning Point, Economists Say

housingrecoverychartEconomists say the housing market is starting to heal, but too many people aren’t aware of it because they’re judging a housing recovery on the wrong sign: What’s happening with home prices.

Paul Dales at Capital Economics says higher prices won’t be the sign that the housing market is on the mend — that can be a lagging indicator — but rather an increase in overall home sales. And that’s showing signs of improvement: Existing home sales in 2011 rose to 4.26 million compared to 4.19 million in 2010. In the last six months alone, home sales have increased 13 percent.

As a recent article at Fortune points out, “The evidence reminds us that perhaps we should change our expectations of what a housing recovery might look like, particularly following a crisis marked by record foreclosures and a financial crisis that sent the economy into one of the deepest recessions. The recovery we have been anticipating is defined more on the rate at which the glut of vacant properties comes off the market as opposed to any steady rise in prices, which some think won’t happen for another few years.”

Source: “The One Number to Watch for a Housing Recovery,” Fortune (March 20, 2012)

Bank Owned Home Discounts to Grow Even Bigger?

bank-owned-homesForeclosures are expected to pick-up as soon as banks begin to clear their backlog of troubled loans. RealtyTrac is projecting a 25 percent increase in foreclosures in 2012.

If an increase does occur, some housing experts wonder how it will impact overall home prices and whether the discounts for REOs will be even larger this time around.

For example, in metro areas like Las Vegas, the average foreclosure sells at 6.1 percent less than a non-foreclosure home. In Miami, the foreclosure discount is 7.1 percent, according to data by LPS Applied Analytics. In some places, it’s even more.

“A spike in sales of bank-owned homes can be bad news for other sellers,” The Wall Street Journal reports. “And foreclosure sales make it hard for prices to rise overall since they boost sales activity at the lower end of the market.”

This time around, however, housing experts don’t expect the discounts in distressed properties to grow.

“More often than not, prices are determined more by demand than supply,” Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, told The Wall Street Journal. Areas with a high number of REOs may have greater demand for REOs in good condition and less supply for other properties. Plus, Capital Economics predicts that demand will improve nationwide this year as the housing markets starts to recover.

Source: “Will the ‘Foreclosure Discount’ Grow This Year?” The Wall Street Journal (March 14, 2012)

How To Calculate The Real Value Of A Home

Value-of-a-Home

Canadian VS. American Homeowners

home_ownersI have lived in both countries. I have owned real estate in both countries. The financial component is what I have found to be the major difference.

What do you think about the comparison?

comparison_usa_canada_infographic

What You Need to Know about Cancellation of Mortgage Debt

Erase-DebtThis column is brought to you by the NAR Real Estate Services group.

A lender will, on occasion, forgive some portion of a borrower’s debt. The general tax rule that applies to any debt forgiveness is that the amount forgiven is treated as taxable income to the borrower. Some exceptions to this rule are available, but, until recently, the borrower was required to pay tax on the debt forgiven. A new law enacted in December 2007 provides relief to troubled borrowers when some portion of mortgage debt is forgiven. However, this relief expires on December 31, 2012 and NAR will be working to obtain an extension throughout the year.

Below is some general information you need to know about this law and cancellation of mortgage debt.

General Rule for Debt Forgiveness
If a lender forgives some or all of an individual’s debts, the general rule is that the forgiven amount is treated as ordinary income and the borrower must pay tax on the forgiven amount. Exceptions apply for bankruptcy, insolvency and certain other situations, including mortgage debt.

Current Law for Mortgage Debt
(Jan. 1, 2007 through Dec. 31, 2012): A borrower can be excused from paying tax on forgiven mortgage debt. The debt must be secured by a principal residence and the total amount of the outstanding obligation may not exceed the original mortgage amount plus the cost of any improvements.

Does the relief apply only to a sale?
No. The provision has broader application. Lenders might forgive some portion of mortgage debt in a short sale (when value at sale is less than the amount owed) or in a foreclosure where the debt is wiped out. In addition, if a borrower still living in the home is able to make an arrangement with a lender that reduces the principal balance of a mortgage, the amount forgiven in that workout will not be taxed.

Can the homeowners in a short sale or foreclosure claim a loss?
No. The loss is considered a personal loss and is, therefore, ineligible for either capital loss or ordinary loss treatment.

What happens to the seller when mortgage debt is forgiven?
Until January 1, 2013, the homeowner will pay no tax on any forgiven amount.

Does this provision apply to a refinanced mortgage?
Only in limited circumstances. The relief provision can apply to either an original or a refinanced mortgage. If the mortgage has been refinanced at any time, the relief is available only up to the amount of the original debt (plus the cost of any improvements). Tax relief is generally not available for second mortgages or home-equity lines of credit where the funds are not used for home improvement. Any amount that is not eligible for the relief provision will be taxed as ordinary income.

How does the homeowner get the correct information to the IRS?
The lender is required to provide the homeowner and the IRS with a Form 1099 reflecting the amount of the forgiven debt. The borrower/homeowner must file a Form 982 to reflect the amount forgiven and to show the reason why the forgiven amount is not taxable. Any taxable portion of forgiven debt will then be reported on the homeowner’s Form 1040 for the tax year in which the debt was forgiven.

What if a property declines in value but the owner stays in the house?
The provision would not apply. The provision applies only at the time of sale or other disposition or when there is a workout (reduction of existing debt) with the lender.

Do all lenders forgive mortgage debt when property values decline or the home is in foreclosure?
No. Some states have laws that allow a lender to require a repayment arrangement, particularly if the borrower has other assets. Forgiveness of debt is always at the lender’s discretion.

Linda Goold is the Tax Counsel for National Association of REALTORS®.

FHA Announces Price Cuts to Encourage Streamline Refinancing

price-cutsRecently, Acting Federal Housing (FHA) Commissioner Carol Galante announced significant price cuts to FHA’s Streamline Refinance Program that could benefit millions of borrowers whose mortgages are currently insured by FHA. Beginning June 11, 2012, FHA will lower its Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium (UFMIP) to just .01 percent and reduce its annual premium to .55 percent for certain FHA borrowers.

To qualify, borrowers must be current on their existing FHA-insured mortgages which were endorsed on or before May 31, 2009. Late last month, FHA also announced it will increase its upfront premiums on most other loans by 75 basis points to 1.75 percent. In addition, FHA will raise annual premiums 10 basis points and 35 basis points on mortgages higher than $625,500.

“This is one way that FHA can make a real difference to help homeowners who are doing the right thing, paying their bills on time and want to take advantage of today’s low interest rates,” says Galante. “By significantly reducing costs for these borrowers, we can make certain they cut their monthly mortgage burden, which will benefit the housing market and the broader economy in the process.”

Currently, 3.4 million households with loans endorsed on or before May 31, 2009, pay more than a five percent annual interest rate on their FHA-insured mortgages. By refinancing through this streamlined process, it’s estimated that the average qualified FHA-insured borrower will save approximately $3,000 a year or $250 per month. FHA’s new discounted prices assume no greater risk to its Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund and will allow many of these borrowers to refinance into a lower cost FHA-insured mortgage without requiring additional underwriting. FHA-insured homeowners should contact their existing lender to determine their eligibility.

Last month, the Obama Administration announced a broad package of actions and legislative proposals to help responsible homeowners save thousands of dollars through refinancing. This includes the changes announced today that will benefit current FHA borrowers—particularly those whose loan value may exceed the current value of their home. By lowering monthly mortgage costs for home-owners, FHA hopes to help more borrowers stay in their homes, thereby decreasing the potential for future default and reducing losses to the Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund.

The changes outlined in today’s mortgagee letter apply to all mortgages insured under FHA’s Single Family Mortgage Insurance Programs except:

  • Title I
  • Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECM)
  • Section 247 (Hawaiian Homelands)
  • Section 248 (Indian Reservations)
  • Section 223(e) (Declining Neighborhoods)

For more information, visit www.hud.gov

Staging Your Kitchen For Home Showings [Video]

Though this isn’t splitting the atom, it is good to be reminded of best practices when selling your home.

Housing Affordability Soars to Record High

Low mortgage rates and falling home values have brought housing within reach to more families than ever before, according to the latest National Association of REALTORS® housing affordability index.

Housing affordability in January reached its highest level since NAR began tracking it in 1970. The index — which tracks median home price, median family income, and the average mortgage rate — reached 206.1 in January.

"This is the first time the housing affordability index has broken the 200 mark, meaning the typical family has roughly double the income needed to purchase a median-priced home," says Moe Veissi, 2012 NAR president. "For buyers who can qualify for a mortgage, now is a very good time to become a home owner."

An index of 100 means that median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family home, also accounting for a 20 percent down payment and 25 percent of gross income devoted to the mortgage principle and interest payments.

NAR projects that affordability will remain high for the remainder of the year.

"Housing inventory levels have declined to a point where conditions are becoming much more balanced in much of the country," Veissi said. "If access to credit improves, we could see a much more meaningful increase in home sales and broader stabilization in home prices with modest gains in areas with stronger job growth."

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

Where are the sales?

sale_price_distribution

At the sub-market level, Kirkland remains as the most expensive submarket in the Seattle metro area for single family new construction during the fourth quarter of 2011 with the average price of transacted units of approximately $827,000. Sammamish was second at $691,000 and Bellevue/Mercer Island ($668,000) rounds out the top three. The most affordable markets were Black Diamond/Enumclaw ($222,000), Sultan/Gold Bar/Index ($235,000) and Marysville ($254,000).

The sharpest single family home price escalation was seen in the Sultan/Gold Bar/Index sub-market where, as a function of very little development, prices rose by 366%. This was followed by Stanwood (76.6%, Carnation/Duvall (58.1% and Arlington/Granite Falls (41.2%). The most prominent declines were found in Black Diamond/Enumclaw (-36.3%) and North Seattle (-27%). When we look at the market, one thing remains clear, and that is the lack of inventory for sale. This has started to have an effect on transactional activity which is sure to continue to decline unless more houses come onto the market for sale.

In all, several sub-markets appear to be showing signs of stabilizing relative to values. When placed in concert with increasing incomes and an improving employment situation, it may be possible to
speculate that the residential market is in its trough and that further pronounced declines in price are unlikely.

That said, we will be looking for some good numbers come out for the first quarter before we are willing to suggest that the market is in any form of recovery on a regional basis.