Housing Affordability Reaches Records

affordabilityHousing affordability conditions for all buyers reached a milestone in the first quarter, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

NAR’s composite quarterly Housing Affordability Index rose to a record high of 205.9 in first quarter, based on the relationship between median home price, median family income and average mortgage interest rate. The higher the index, the greater the household purchasing power. This is the first time the quarterly index broke the 200 mark; recordkeeping began in 1970.

NAR President Moe Veissi said market conditions are optimal for home buyers. “For those with good credit, we’ve never seen better housing affordability conditions or market opportunities than we see at present,” he said. “Although home prices are stabilizing and sales are rising, some buyers still have to jump through a lot of hoops to convince a lender that they are creditworthy, even for a mortgage that would be well within their means. This is especially true for self-employed buyers.”

Veissi noted home sales would be much higher if lending standards would return to normal.

The index shows the median-income family, earning just under $61,000, could afford a home costing $325,500 in the first quarter, which is more than double the national median existing single-family home price of $158,100. The median monthly mortgage principal and interest payment for a median-priced home would take only 13.5 percent of gross income.

A companion index measuring the ability of first-time buyers to purchase a home also set a record, with the first-time buyer index reaching 135.8 in the first quarter.

Assumptions for the first-time buyer index include a lower income, at 65 percent of median family income, a starter home costing 85 percent of the median price, and a down payment of 10 percent. This index means the typical entry-level buyer could afford a home costing $182,500, which is well above the overall median price.

“It’s never been easy to buy a first home because of the cash required for downpayment and closing costs, but conditions for first-time buyers who are able to get a mortgage have never been better,” Veissi explained.

Most first-time buyers choose a loan with a lower down payment, often an FHA-insured loan with 3.5 percent down, and some use the VA program with no down payment.

Both home prices and mortgage interest rates are expected to edge up modestly as the year progresses, but housing affordability will remain very favorable with the median-income household well positioned to afford a median-priced home. For all of 2012 the index is projected to set an annual record, averaging 191 for the year.

Source: NAR

More Renters Are Finding It’s Cheaper to Buy

rent buyWith rising rents, more renters are being swayed into home ownership, even in pricey housing markets like New York.

For example, one New York renter said he started looking into owning a home when his landlord tried to increase his rent by 13 percent when his lease was up for renewal. He found that he could buy a home and get the same amount of space for cheaper than continuing to rent, plus he’d be building equity.

Other renters are starting to see that buying may be a better option for them, too.

Rents are increasing at about the same pace that home values are dropping, says Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, who says, according to their surveys, home prices have dropped 3.1 percent year-over-year whereas rents have increased 2.5 percent.

"Herein lie the seeds to eventually more interest in buying on the part of consumers, which will help put a floor under home prices," Humphries told Investors Business Daily. Recent housing surveys, including Zillow’s, are showing home prices are starting to rise in recent months.

Affordability in housing has been at record highs from the combination of falling home values and record-low mortgages. Humphries says that housing prices have rolled back to 2003 levels.

"That increased affordability in the face of rising rental prices will begin to get buyers off the fence this year,” Humphries says. "What’s been keeping buyers on the fence is a crisis of confidence. People who don’t have a job, or who are worried about losing their job, don’t buy homes. They also don’t want to buy an asset they think is rapidly depreciating.”

National Association of REALTORS®’ Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says the tighter restrictions from lenders are also preventing many potential buyers from securing financing in order to buy. But for those who are able to qualify, Yun says “it’s better to get in now” than wait.

Source: “Rising Rents Prompt Buys, May Help Housing Recover,” Investors Business Daily (May 10, 2012)

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Buying is Cheaper Than Renting in Nearly All Major Cities

Short Sales: The Mortgage Originators Role in the Process

A key component to the success of a short sale involves working with a Mortgage Originator who is well versed in the short sale process. The short sale negotiation process is a patience testing task. The complications are many, however if the buyer is securing mortgage financing and is working with an originator that understands that short sale process the buyer and seller can be rest assured, in most circumstances, that the transaction will get to the closing table.

There are 5 key questions to ask when choosing a Mortgage Originator for the purchase of a short sale transaction.

1.) Are they versed in the Anatomy of the Short Sale process?

The proper mortgage origination process pertaining to a short sale purchase is a bit different than a normal non-distressed property purchase. However, it is always my belief that in order to lead the cavalry one must have sat in the saddle. Putting this in terms of the short sale process, in order to originate a loan for a buyer who is interested in a short sale, one must understand the entire anatomy of the short sale process. This includes the challenges that the sellers faces regarding financial difficulty and hardship, the challenges that the selling agents face regarding listing and negotiating the short payoff and most importantly the strict timelines that come along with a short sale transaction.

2.) Will they issue a “TRUE” pre-approval prior to Short Sale approval?

A complete short sale package should include a mortgage pre-approval for the buyer if the buyer is securing mortgage financing to purchase the property.  The originator should have taken a full mortgage application, documented income, assets, reviewed the buyers credit and submitted the file through the appropriate automated underwriting service (ex DU,LP) prior to issuing a pre-approval letter to the buyer.

The pre-approval process for a short sale transaction should not be any different than the pre-approval process in a non-distressed sale. Having said this,  we have closed over 2500 short sale transactions nationwide. Many times, because of the long timeframes that are involved in a short sale, originators are not properly pre-qualifying the buyer prior to short sale approval. Originators are waiting until the short sale is approved by the short selling bank to submit the client profile to underwriting and is some cases to even issue a complete pre-approval. That is too late!  In every circumstance the pre-approval process should be done thoroughly before the short sale approval.

3.) Will they order the appraisal prior to Short Sale approval?

In a non-distressed sale typically, once the purchase contract is signed, the Mortgage Originator or their processing team will then order the appraisal for the property so that it may be reviewed by underwriting. Underwriting will then make sure the property is acceptable as collateral based upon the loan that is being applied for.

This process should hold true if the buyer is buying a short sale. Many times however, the appraisal is not ordered until the short sale is approved by the short selling bank. Often, this will delay the closing timeframes.  Also, consider this, if the short selling bank based upon their appraisal, counters they buyer with a higher price, the buyer who has already had their appraisal done will have the ability to issue a rebuttal based on their appraisal.   The Buyer’s/Lender’s appraisal is a great tool to negotiate value disputes with  short selling banks.

4.) Will they communicate with the Short Sale Negotiator?

There is one line of communication that is a must during a short sale.  This is the communication between the Short Sale Negotiator and the Mortgage Originator. The Mortgage Originator should be in touch with the negotiator on a weekly or bi weekly basis to obtain the status of the negotiation. It is imperative that the originator be informed of such deadlines as closing dates, approval expirations, BPO time lines, contract changes etc.

5.) Will they keep the Buyer engaged throughout the process?

In a non-distressed sale the timelines are usually short from pre-approval to closing. The potential buyer will obtain a pre-approval for mortgage financing; they will shop for a home, make an offer and then close on the property.  Most cases this process takes between 30-60 days.

In contrast, the short sale purchase timeline could take the normal 30 to 45 days of shopping but, from the time a buyer puts an offer on a property to the time they actually close could take 90-120 days. During this time frame, the mortgage originator must keep the buyer engaged. The information gathered in the pre-approval process meaning paystubs, bank statements etc. will need to be updated appropriately so that when the short sale bank issues their approval the buyer is ready to close on time and within the approval guidelines.  All too often short sale negotiators are asked to obtain short sale approval extensions from the short selling bank because the buyer could not close on time. Most of this stems from the Mortgage Originator scrambling to obtain last minute documentation that could have been avoided if the buyer’s credit file was routinely updated throughout the entire short sale process.

In closing, with the abundance of short sale transactions permeating the marketplace, it is imperative that all interested parties to a short sale work with a Mortgage Professional that understands this segment of the marketplace. By keeping the 5 questions above in mind, you may alleviate the possibility of a short sale transaction failing because of buyer financing falling apart.

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10 housing markets set for double-digit price gains

home prices

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Ten hard-hit housing markets will record double-digit price increases through 2013, according to a report Wednesday.

And with mortgage rates low, many house hunters have already started to pounce on bargains, said David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv, a financial analytics company that prepared the forecast.

"Some markets may have overshot to the downside, and people are jumping in to try to catch the bottom," Stiff said.

Nationwide, home prices will start rebounding late this year and gain an average of 4% a year over the next five years, Fiserv projects.

In a separate report released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors, the national median home price declined by just 0.4% in the three months ended March 31 compared with the same period in 2011.

About half of the 146 metro-area markets surveyed by NAR showed a price increase, as buyers make inroads into the supply of homes for sale all across the country. National inventory has dropped by 22% compared to a year earlier.

"Given the steadily dwindling supply of inventory and notably higher listing prices that are being negotiated today, prices are expected to show further improvements in the near future," said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Home prices will also be driven higher as banks opt for short sales instead of repossessions. Repossessed homes sell for between 25% and 50% less than comparable homes sold by conventional sellers, according to Daren Blomquist, a spokesman for RealtyTrac, which markets foreclosed properties.

Bank repossessions often go through lengthy foreclosure processes and long periods of vacancy, during which they may deteriorate and lose value.

Mortgage payments at lowest level in decades

Fiserv’s Stiff forecasts that Madera, Calif., will produce the largest home price gain over the next two years. This market bubbled during the housing boom, with the median home price jumping above $300,000, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Prices have since tumbled 53% off their peak, to about $125,000. Fiserv is projecting a price jump of 21.5% by the end of 2013 with 16.5% of that increase coming next year.

Other double-digit gainers will include Medford, Ore., with a 20.1% rise, Yuma, Ariz., with 16.7%, and Corvallis, Ore., with 11.4%.

Home Prices to Rise 4% Per Year?

home pricesHave home prices finally hit bottom? Many analysts think so. According to the latest forecast by Fiserv, the market watcher sees a big boost to home prices on the horizon, projecting that home prices will rise nearly 4 percent per year for the next five years.

The real estate markets expected to see the biggest increases in home prices will likely be those hardest hit the last few years by foreclosures, such as in Phoenix and Las Vegas, and areas where prices have fallen the most, according to Fiserv’s forecast.

Housings rising affordability mixed with falling inventories of for-sale homes are the main factors driving the expected price increases, according to Fiserv.

Initially, investors are expected to help drive most of this price increase, and then followed by first-time and trade-up buyers as they re-emerge in bigger numbers to the market.

If this prediction is correct. A home on the Eastside (Bellevue, Redmond, Kirkland et al) would go from $512,000.00 to $532,480.00, then to $553,779.00 by the year 2014. Not inconsequential numbers to be sure.

Source: “U.S. Home Prices Could Rise 4% a Year, Forecast Says,” USA Today (May 8. 2012)

Housing finds a balance between supply and demand

Although regionally, home prices vary, as a nation, there is little change between this year and last year, with CoreLogic implying price stabilization is the current state of the market.

Healthy_Home_design

Home prices stabilizing

With a 0.6 percent drop in home prices between March 2011 and March 2012 and a 0.6 percent increase in prices from February, CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) shows that national home prices not only saw the first month-over-month increase since July 2011, the movement up and down is slight, indicating the market has found its bottom. Excluding distressed sales, month-over-month prices increased for the third month in a row. The CoreLogic HPI also shows that year-over-year prices, excluding distressed sales, rose by 0.9 percent in March 2012 compared to March 2011.

“This spring the housing market is responding to an improving balance between real estate supply and demand which is causing stabilization in house prices,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although this has been the case in each of the last two years, the difference this year is that stabilization is occurring without the support of tax credits and in spite of a declining share of REO sales.”

“While housing prices remain flat nationally, in many markets tighter inventories are beginning to lift home prices,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “This is true in Phoenix, New York and Washington, for example, which all reflect higher home price values than a year ago. A continuation of this trend will be good for our industry across U.S. markets.”

Regional performances vary

As always, all real estate is local and some states continue to perform extremely well while others continue to decline. Including distressed sales, the states with the highest appreciation were Wyoming (+5.9 percent), West Virginia (+5.3 percent), Arizona (+5.1 percent), North Dakota (+4.7 percent) and Florida (+4.5 percent) and excluding distressed sales, the top performers for March were Idaho (+5.4 percent), North Dakota (+5.1 percent), South Carolina (+4.7 percent), Montana (+3.5 percent) and Kansas (+3.4 percent).

Not everyone had such stellar results, however, as CoreLogic reports that including distressed sales, the states with the greatest depreciation were Delaware (-10.6 percent), Illinois (-8.3 percent), Alabama (-8.0 percent), Georgia (-7.3 percent) and Nevada (-5.8 percent), and excluding distressed sales, the poorest performers were Delaware (-7.6 percent), Alabama (-4.1 percent), Nevada (-3.9 percent), Vermont (-3.9 percent) and Rhode Island (-2.9 percent).

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to March 2012) was -33.7 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -24.5 percent. The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines including distressed transactions are Nevada (-59.9 percent), Arizona (-48.6 percent), Florida (-48.1 percent), Michigan (-45.1 percent) and California (-42.7 percent). Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 57 are showing year-over-year declines in March, eight fewer than in February.

1 Housing finds a balance between supply and demand
2 Housing finds a balance between supply and demand
3 Housing finds a balance between supply and demand
4 Housing finds a balance between supply and demand

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Further Proof the Real Estate Market Is Coming Back

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Sales Report which showed that contracted sales were 12.8% higher than the same month last year and higher than any time since sales were impacted by the Homebuyers’ Credit back in April of 2010. The index stood at 101.4 which represents a level that is “historically healthy” (see methodology below).

Here is a graph showing pending sales over the last twelve months:

METHODOLOGY (as per NAR)

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales; it coincides with a level that is historically healthy.

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Short Sales Map: Percentage Of Sales

Short-Sale-Percentages

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How is the Bellevue Market?

real estate updateHow’s the market? I get asked that daily! Which one? The resale market? The rental market? The investor market? Let’s look at just east of Lake Washington.

In Bellevue 66.2% of properties  in all price points were in contract last month.

bellevue

In the more affordable price point ($0.00 – $500,000.00), 100% of homes were in contract. Yup! 100%!

bellevue 2

In the Redmond at the more affordable price point ($0.00 – $400,000.00), 71.4% of homes were in contract. Redmond

In these two markets, the sellers are in control – at least for now.

WE NEED INVENTORY! If you know someone who tried to sell in the past but needs to sell now, connect me with them. I want to help.